Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.25 – 170.08

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 129.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±16.6

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 96.88Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6348PrepaTec - HORUS

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 9.33Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 47.04Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176 ±18.8

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 90.31Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 66.26Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6402GÖKTÜRKLER

Provisional

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 13.51Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9030, 6348, 10045

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9030, 6348, 10045

Auto

8.8 6%

Teleop

81.2 57%

Endgame

51.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8739, 10390, 6402

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8739, 10390, 6402

Auto

14.3 9%

Teleop

91.0 57%

Endgame

53.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score170.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.8
Score range: 122–201
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 174.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.9Season APEX176

8.8Auto14.3

81.2Teleop91

51.8Endgame53.3

34Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	19	5
endgame	8	1
foul	0	0
total	46	18

Result

Final score

46 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 129.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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