Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.29 – 88.96

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.5 ±14.5

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 106.9Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX -23.09Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 74.48Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±15.6

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX -29.13Rank 32Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 110.64Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11313tROBOmakEr

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 7.45Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8011, 2869, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8011, 2869, 2265

Auto

60.1 40%

Teleop

76.0 51%

Endgame

12.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3193, 4027, 11313

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3193, 4027, 11313

Auto

31.5 39%

Teleop

33.7 42%

Endgame

15.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score158.3pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 58–189
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.5Season APEX327.9

60.1Auto31.5

76Teleop33.7

12.9Endgame15.1

59Consistency188

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	21
teleop	110	95
endgame	3	72
foul	0	15
total	185	203

Result

Final score

185 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 70.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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