Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.56 – 202

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 73.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.2 ±12.2

8739Redhawk Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 56.92Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 43.63Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 97.01Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±16.5

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 90.36Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX 131.1Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -19.46Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8739, 334, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8739, 334, 4027

Auto

30.7 16%

Teleop

103.2 53%

Endgame

61.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10390, 7551, 516

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10390, 7551, 516

Auto

27.4 14%

Teleop

104.4 55%

Endgame

57.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.6pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.4
Score range: 165–235
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 183.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.2Season APEX322.1

30.7Auto27.4

103.2Teleop104.4

61.2Endgame57.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	13
teleop	126	20
endgame	23	27
foul	0	0
total	203	60

Result

Final score

203 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 73.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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