Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.68 – 203.77

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.6 ±18.8

7272Envirobots

Provisional

Season APEX 46Event APEX -31.21Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7636Robomania

Provisional

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 29.48Rank 38Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 104.41Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.6 ±15.8

10045Casque Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 6.98Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX -14.12Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 210.91Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7272, 7636, 8011

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7272, 7636, 8011

Auto

35.3 36%

Teleop

45.8 47%

Endgame

15.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10045, 2869, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10045, 2869, 1156

Auto

38.7 19%

Teleop

121.1 60%

Endgame

41.2 20%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score203.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.1
Score range: 69–238
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.6Season APEX382.6

35.3Auto38.7

45.8Teleop121.1

15.9Endgame41.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	26
teleop	70	150
endgame	25	82
foul	0	20
total	145	278

Result

Final score

145 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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