Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.04 – 260.78

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.5 ±12.2

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 110.04Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 60.93Rank 26Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3158PrepaTec - TECBOT

Season APEX 153.1Event APEX 83.07Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.7 ±12.9

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 30.81Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9030Qarabagh MecHack

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 123.03Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 106.94Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8393, 2265, 3158

/ 100 compat

Projected

254 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8393, 2265, 3158

Auto

32.3 13%

Teleop

151.9 63%

Endgame

58.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9642, 9030, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9642, 9030, 1880

Auto

35.5 14%

Teleop

156.5 61%

Endgame

66.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score254pts

Blue projected score260.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 220–295
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.5Season APEX373.7

32.3Auto35.5

151.9Teleop156.5

58.8Endgame66

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	33
teleop	133	33
endgame	34	13
foul	5	15
total	246	94

Result

Final score

246 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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