Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.11 – 75.82

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±14.1

4571Rambots

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 8.92Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6024R Factor

Season APEX 58Event APEX 2.06Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6911SO BOTZ

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 19.13Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±15.6

11313tROBOmakEr

Provisional

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 19.13Rank 39Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 47.77Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6348PrepaTec - HORUS

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 8.92Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4571, 6024, 6911

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4571, 6024, 6911

Auto

1.1 3%

Teleop

22.3 71%

Endgame

8.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11313, 334, 6348

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11313, 334, 6348

Auto

7.1 9%

Teleop

43.5 56%

Endgame

27.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.1pts

Blue projected score75.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.7
Score range: -4–110
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.6Season APEX281

1.1Auto7.1

22.3Teleop43.5

8.1Endgame27.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	84	14
endgame	10	7
foul	0	5
total	106	43

Result

Final score

106 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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