Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.88 – 252.26

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 166.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.7 ±15.6

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 82.29Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 24.86Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10390GOOGIRL

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 58.73Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.2 ±15.3

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 163.09Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8011Wayi Guangzhou

Season APEX 147.3Event APEX 58.73Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6880Universal Serial Brawlers (USB)

Provisional

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 30.44Rank 27Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4027, 358, 10390

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4027, 358, 10390

Auto

29.8 19%

Teleop

84.1 53%

Endgame

44.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1156, 8011, 6880

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 8011, 6880

Auto

30.9 13%

Teleop

161.9 66%

Endgame

52.7 21%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.9pts

Blue projected score252.3pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample160alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.4
Score range: 135–283
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 751 vs event baseline 173.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.7Season APEX480.2

29.8Auto30.9

84.1Teleop161.9

44.2Endgame52.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	111
teleop	131	262
endgame	101	78
foul	25	5
total	295	456

Result

Final score

295 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 166.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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