Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.11 – 130.95

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.7 ±15.3

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 79.25Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 30.59Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 89.27Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.4 ±11.7

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 18.03Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 60.2Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 52.72Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2872, 871, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2872, 871, 263

Auto

39.5 20%

Teleop

112.1 57%

Endgame

43.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 2638, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 2638, 1880

Auto

39.9 32%

Teleop

68.5 55%

Endgame

16.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score199.1pts

Blue projected score131pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.2
Score range: 108–222
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.7Season APEX483.4

39.5Auto39.9

112.1Teleop68.5

43.7Endgame16.9

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	40
teleop	83	97
endgame	8	38
foul	25	50
total	172	225

Result

Final score

172 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 pts

Match videos

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