Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.28 – 97.62

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.4 ±14.7

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 115.7Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 103.65Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 7.93Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±17.5

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 48.81Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 31.12Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 17.69Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8267, 287, 2161

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 287, 2161

Auto

35.1 17%

Teleop

126.0 59%

Endgame

51.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1554, 3950, 329

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1554, 3950, 329

Auto

18.3 20%

Teleop

55.2 60%

Endgame

18.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.3pts

Blue projected score97.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.7
Score range: 75–250
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.4Season APEX218.6

35.1Auto18.3

126Teleop55.2

51.6Endgame18.8

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	27
teleop	90	58
endgame	14	13
foul	5	5
total	166	103

Result

Final score

166 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Match videos

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