Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.75 – 90.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±17.5

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 50.42Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 48.71Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 38.62Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±15.6

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 55.39Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 10.6Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 24.34Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 496, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 496, 4458

Auto

16.6 12%

Teleop

73.7 54%

Endgame

47.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2638, 806, 28

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 806, 28

Auto

38.7 43%

Teleop

35.4 39%

Endgame

15.9 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.8pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.4
Score range: 67–161
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.5Season APEX363.5

16.6Auto38.7

73.7Teleop35.4

47.2Endgame15.9

77Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	47
teleop	62	77
endgame	61	14
foul	15	25
total	162	163

Result

Final score

162 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Match videos

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