Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.16 – 177.84

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±14.5

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 40.69Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 22.94Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 49.53Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±14.5

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 34.09Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 65.78Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 77.97Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9016, 5016, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 5016, 1468

Auto

29.8 27%

Teleop

56.6 52%

Endgame

22.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 533, 353, 810

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 533, 353, 810

Auto

32.5 19%

Teleop

95.2 57%

Endgame

40.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.2pts

Blue projected score177.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.7
Score range: 90–201
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX377.7

29.8Auto32.5

56.6Teleop95.2

22.1Endgame40.4

15Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	33
teleop	49	47
endgame	24	41
foul	55	25
total	165	146

Result

Final score

165 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 pts

Match videos

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