Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.07 – 104.2

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 483.4 ±11.7

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 62.78Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 60.8Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 17.49Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±17.5

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 49.31Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 34.44Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 20.45Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2638, 1880, 806

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 1880, 806

Auto

42.5 31%

Teleop

76.9 56%

Endgame

19.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1554, 3950, 329

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1554, 3950, 329

Auto

17.2 18%

Teleop

61.2 63%

Endgame

18.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.1pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 81–164
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 127.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

483.4Season APEX218.6

42.5Auto17.2

76.9Teleop61.2

19Endgame18.2

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	20	34
endgame	13	25
foul	0	0
total	61	80

Result

Final score

61 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 pts

Match videos

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