Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.15 – 149.22

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±13.9

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 111.85Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 100.73Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 3.57Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.5 ±17.5

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 42.36Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 53.02Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 53.84Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8267, 287, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 287, 7673

Auto

37.8 19%

Teleop

107.6 53%

Endgame

58.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4458, 496, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 496, 6423

Auto

21.1 14%

Teleop

76.1 52%

Endgame

50.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score216.2pts

Blue projected score149.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.9
Score range: 126–239
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX264.5

37.8Auto21.1

107.6Teleop76.1

58.4Endgame50.2

8Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	2
teleop	136	68
endgame	64	39
foul	45	0
total	252	109

Result

Final score

252 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Match videos

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