Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.16 – 126.77

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805.9 ±11.7

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 10.05Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 111.45Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 257.66Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±14.5

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 44.26Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 27.89Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 54.62Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9646, 870, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9646, 870, 5736

Auto

93.7 25%

Teleop

190.4 52%

Endgame

85.0 23%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9016, 5016, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 5016, 1468

Auto

26.4 22%

Teleop

74.0 60%

Endgame

22.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score379.2pts

Blue projected score126.8pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 252.4
Score range: 105–401
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 124.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805.9Season APEX277.8

93.7Auto26.4

190.4Teleop74

85Endgame22.2

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	39
teleop	222	13
endgame	41	18
foul	35	5
total	411	75

Result

Final score

411 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Match videos

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