Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.34 – 150.72

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535 ±13.9

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 111.97Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 100.72Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 6.65Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.4 ±11.7

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 24.57Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 66.58Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 59.57Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8267, 287, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 287, 7673

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

111.0 55%

Endgame

58.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 2638, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 2638, 1880

Auto

38.6 29%

Teleop

69.6 52%

Endgame

26.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score219.3pts

Blue projected score150.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.6
Score range: 127–243
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535Season APEX483.4

33.5Auto38.6

111Teleop69.6

58Endgame26.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	103	45
endgame	45	17
foul	25	25
total	199	119

Result

Final score

199 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Match videos

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