Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.99 – 147.74

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±14.5

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 45.13Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 57.63Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 28.23Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.4 ±11.7

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 23.62Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 65.61Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 58.51Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9016, 1468, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 1468, 5016

Auto

28.3 26%

Teleop

54.6 50%

Endgame

26.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 2638, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 2638, 1880

Auto

39.8 30%

Teleop

73.3 55%

Endgame

20.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131pts

Blue projected score147.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 107–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX483.4

28.3Auto39.8

54.6Teleop73.3

26.7Endgame20.7

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	32
teleop	56	49
endgame	22	56
foul	5	30
total	117	167

Result

Final score

117 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Match videos

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