Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

391.91 – 209.73

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805.9 ±11.7

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 13.77Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 116.69Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 261.45Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.4 ±14.7

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 110.02Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 98.59Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 1.12Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9646, 870, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9646, 870, 5736

Auto

90.4 24%

Teleop

207.7 55%

Endgame

80.9 21%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8267, 287, 2161

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8267, 287, 2161

Auto

40.7 21%

Teleop

115.9 58%

Endgame

41.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score391.9pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 182.2
Score range: 186–416
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 131.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805.9Season APEX514.4

90.4Auto40.7

207.7Teleop115.9

80.9Endgame41.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	48
teleop	282	116
endgame	90	78
foul	0	0
total	452	242

Result

Final score

452 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 46.2 pts

Match videos

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