Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
99.65 – 122.27
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
142 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.6 ±17.5
Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 48.56Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 31.54Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 19.55Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±14.5
Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 42.26Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 54.55Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 25.46Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1554, 3950, 329
51
/ 100 compatProjected
99.6 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 1554, 3950, 329
Auto
19.6 21%
Teleop
56.6 60%
Endgame
18.5 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9016, 1468, 5016
60
/ 100 compatProjected
122.3 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9016, 1468, 5016
Auto
31.3 29%
Teleop
54.0 50%
Endgame
21.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.5
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score99.6pts
Blue projected score122.3pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -22.6
- Score range
- 76–146
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
218.6Season APEX277.8
19.6Auto31.3
56.6Teleop54
18.5Endgame21.8
28Consistency15
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 27 | 14 |
| teleop | 78 | 61 |
| endgame | 17 | 48 |
| foul | 20 | 50 |
| total | 142 | 173 |
Result
Final score
142 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts
Match videos
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