Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.29 – 168

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.6 ±15

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 34.57Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 4.86Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 16.86Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.9 ±18.1

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 111.14Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 40Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 16.86Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6423, 2869, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 2869, 2872

Auto

10.9 23%

Teleop

16.0 33%

Endgame

20.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 287, 527, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 287, 527, 7673

Auto

31.1 21%

Teleop

77.4 51%

Endgame

42.3 28%

Strengths

· 287 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.3pts

Blue projected score168pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.7
Score range: 37–187
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.6Season APEX367.9

10.9Auto31.1

16Teleop77.4

20.9Endgame42.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	21
teleop	53	61
endgame	29	21
foul	0	5
total	95	108

Result

Final score

95 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 49.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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