Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.49 – 67.94

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±21.4

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX -13.17Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 13.12Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 45.54Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±20

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 36.69Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 23.78Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 7.47Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 514, 527, 1554

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 514, 527, 1554

Auto

23.9 45%

Teleop

36.7 70%

Endgame

-7.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3950, 2487, 601

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 2487, 601

Auto

9.9 15%

Teleop

29.1 45%

Endgame

25.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.5pts

Blue projected score67.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 22–91
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.8Season APEX162.2

23.9Auto9.9

36.7Teleop29.1

-7.8Endgame25.4

10Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	11
teleop	28	27
endgame	5	12
foul	20	5
total	80	55

Result

Final score

80 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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