Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

362 – 52.53

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

424 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 805.9 ±11.7

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 252.8Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 3.25Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 105.95Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.5 ±20.5

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 16.6Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 25.26Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 10.67Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5736, 9646, 870

/ 100 compat

Projected

362 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5736, 9646, 870

Auto

97.3 27%

Teleop

179.9 51%

Endgame

76.8 22%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4567, 884, 2869

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4567, 884, 2869

Auto

15.8 24%

Teleop

27.1 41%

Endgame

22.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score362pts

Blue projected score52.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 309.5
Score range: 31–384
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 123.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

805.9Season APEX157.5

97.3Auto15.8

179.9Teleop27.1

76.8Endgame22.5

111Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	17
teleop	219	6
endgame	105	8
foul	15	35
total	424	66

Result

Final score

424 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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