Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61 – 77.2

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±19.4

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 28.43Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 20.04Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 12.53Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±17.5

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 15.05Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 22.44Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 39.71Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2347, 806, 2161

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2347, 806, 2161

Auto

12.6 29%

Teleop

26.7 61%

Endgame

4.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 564, 28, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 564, 28, 4458

Auto

31.0 41%

Teleop

27.8 37%

Endgame

16.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score77.2pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.2
Score range: 39–99
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 123.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX226.6

12.6Auto31

26.7Teleop27.8

4.4Endgame16.5

26Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	6
teleop	3	53
endgame	5	49
foul	5	0
total	26	108

Result

Final score

26 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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