Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.23 – 68.01

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.5 ±16.8

11030Bonac Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 38.11Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 78.38Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 15.74Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.8 ±16.8

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 51.34Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -5.73Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 22.4Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11030, 263, 2875

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11030, 263, 2875

Auto

19.3 15%

Teleop

72.3 54%

Endgame

41.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6423, 7673, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6423, 7673, 5016

Auto

4.5 8%

Teleop

19.2 32%

Endgame

35.8 60%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.2
Score range: 46–154
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.5Season APEX264.8

19.3Auto4.5

72.3Teleop19.2

41.2Endgame35.8

27Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	17
teleop	113	78
endgame	48	31
foul	0	0
total	197	126

Result

Final score

197 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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