Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.09 – 131.14

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.6 ±19.7

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 23.41Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 74.59Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 23.09Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±18.2

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 80.39Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 31.21Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 19.54Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 545, 353, 2027

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 545, 353, 2027

Auto

15.1 16%

Teleop

52.6 57%

Endgame

24.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 810, 533, 10621

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 533, 10621

Auto

32.4 26%

Teleop

61.5 49%

Endgame

31.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score131.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 99–153
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.6Season APEX259.6

15.1Auto32.4

52.6Teleop61.5

24.2Endgame31.6

91Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	44
teleop	56	49
endgame	13	56
foul	5	5
total	95	154

Result

Final score

95 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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