Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.02 – 43.45

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.5 ±14.5

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 49.65Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 33.27Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 41.1Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±19.8

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX -8.92Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 57.25Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -4.88Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1468, 358, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1468, 358, 3624

Auto

27.1 27%

Teleop

53.3 53%

Endgame

20.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 569, 496, 3171

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 569, 496, 3171

Auto

10.5 25%

Teleop

16.3 39%

Endgame

14.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score43.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.6
Score range: 21–146
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.5Season APEX199.4

27.1Auto10.5

53.3Teleop16.3

20.3Endgame14.8

0Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	112	4
endgame	14	0
foul	5	5
total	157	23

Result

Final score

157 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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