Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.8 – 150.13

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±21.4

11030Bonac Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 40.58Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 47.11Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 46.11Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.8 ±14.5

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 71.54Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 48.1Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 30.49Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11030, 3137, 1554

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11030, 3137, 1554

Auto

25.5 18%

Teleop

85.9 62%

Endgame

27.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 353, 6423, 533

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 353, 6423, 533

Auto

16.1 12%

Teleop

81.2 58%

Endgame

42.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score150.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.3
Score range: 112–172
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.6Season APEX329.8

25.5Auto16.1

85.9Teleop81.2

27.8Endgame42

13Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	75	96
endgame	9	30
foul	0	35
total	113	177

Result

Final score

113 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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