Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.65 – 41.59

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±17.7

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 20.04Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 20.9Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -7.29Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134 ±22.5

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 27.97Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 20.46Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX -6.84Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 806, 2027, 3171

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 2027, 3171

Auto

7.5 59%

Teleop

5.1 40%

Endgame

0.2 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 884, 527, 569

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 884, 527, 569

Auto

16.8 34%

Teleop

12.6 25%

Endgame

20.3 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.7pts

Blue projected score41.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.9
Score range: 12–64
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.8Season APEX134

7.5Auto16.8

5.1Teleop12.6

0.2Endgame20.3

72Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	18
teleop	14	8
endgame	18	0
foul	5	0
total	59	26

Result

Final score

59 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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