Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.85 – 93.52

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.6 ±20.5

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 32.17Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 7.27Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 26.41Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.2 ±20

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 20.97Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 15.82Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 56.73Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3137, 601, 5016

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3137, 601, 5016

Auto

19.0 29%

Teleop

26.1 40%

Endgame

19.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2487, 4567, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2487, 4567, 1468

Auto

18.4 22%

Teleop

47.8 58%

Endgame

16.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.9pts

Blue projected score93.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.7
Score range: 41–119
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.6Season APEX168.2

19Auto18.4

26.1Teleop47.8

19.4Endgame16.9

81Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	16	80
endgame	23	19
foul	0	0
total	56	117

Result

Final score

56 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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