Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.91 – 86.12

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.2 ±20.5

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 16.23Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 15.46Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 24.22Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±22

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 55.75Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 51.14Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX -20.77Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5016, 10621, 2347

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5016, 10621, 2347

Auto

13.2 35%

Teleop

18.1 48%

Endgame

6.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 496, 1546, 514

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 496, 1546, 514

Auto

34.1 38%

Teleop

33.9 38%

Endgame

20.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score86.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.2
Score range: 34–108
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 120.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.2Season APEX161.8

13.2Auto34.1

18.1Teleop33.9

6.1Endgame20.8

66Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	23
teleop	56	87
endgame	32	24
foul	10	0
total	107	134

Result

Final score

107 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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