Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.14 – 72.31

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.3 ±12.9

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 72.02Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 57.23Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 2.89Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±17.2

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 14.3Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 18.43Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 39.58Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 263, 2638, 6806

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 263, 2638, 6806

Auto

40.5 32%

Teleop

66.2 52%

Endgame

21.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4567, 2875, 358

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4567, 2875, 358

Auto

18.2 20%

Teleop

52.0 56%

Endgame

22.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.1pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.8
Score range: 50–154
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.3Season APEX248

40.5Auto18.2

66.2Teleop52

21.4Endgame22.4

53Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	24
teleop	94	10
endgame	41	36
foul	5	10
total	190	80

Result

Final score

190 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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