Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.28 – 114.33

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136 ±20.5

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -1.41Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 36.33Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 30.36Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±17.5

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX -0.17Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 88.54Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 25.96Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3171, 884, 2487

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3171, 884, 2487

Auto

7.7 12%

Teleop

24.9 39%

Endgame

31.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2161, 810, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2161, 810, 4458

Auto

29.4 25%

Teleop

57.5 50%

Endgame

28.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.3pts

Blue projected score114.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 44–135
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 119.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136Season APEX286.6

7.7Auto29.4

24.9Teleop57.5

31.4Endgame28.4

105Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	37
teleop	4	66
endgame	8	35
foul	0	0
total	25	138

Result

Final score

25 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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