Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.35 – 8.29

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±18.4

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 50.3Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 74.31Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -14.26Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.8 ±22

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 9.93Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX -20.17Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 18.53Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1546, 353, 7673

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1546, 353, 7673

Auto

18.9 19%

Teleop

58.3 58%

Endgame

24.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 601, 514, 28

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 601, 514, 28

Auto

22.2 100%

Teleop

-11.9 0%

Endgame

-6.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.4pts

Blue projected score8.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.1
Score range: -14–132
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.7Season APEX109.8

18.9Auto22.2

58.3Teleop-11.9

24Endgame-6

95Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	30
teleop	30	5
endgame	38	1
foul	20	0
total	101	36

Result

Final score

101 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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