Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109 – 165.39

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.3 ±17.2

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 28.46Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 54.88Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 25.66Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±15.8

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 42.64Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 67.78Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 54.97Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2347, 1468, 2875

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2347, 1468, 2875

Auto

25.3 33%

Teleop

43.5 57%

Endgame

7.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 871, 2872, 9016

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 871, 2872, 9016

Auto

33.8 23%

Teleop

77.5 54%

Endgame

33.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.4
Score range: 87–187
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.3Season APEX307.8

25.3Auto33.8

43.5Teleop77.5

7.9Endgame33.5

37Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	55	108
endgame	10	36
foul	0	0
total	84	179

Result

Final score

84 – 179

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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