Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

233.68 – 323.36

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491 ±15.1

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 80.71Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 93.55Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 59.42Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.3 ±15.5

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 22.71Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 244.97Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 55.68Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 263, 287, 496

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 263, 287, 496

Auto

36.5 17%

Teleop

127.5 58%

Endgame

55.6 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 527, 5736, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 527, 5736, 2638

Auto

96.1 30%

Teleop

162.2 51%

Endgame

60.0 19%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233.7pts

Blue projected score323.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.7
Score range: 213–344
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 552 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491Season APEX554.3

36.5Auto96.1

127.5Teleop162.2

55.6Endgame60

73Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	112
teleop	110	133
endgame	55	68
foul	20	5
total	234	318

Result

Final score

234 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 2.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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