Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.58 – 119.82

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.9 ±21.4

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 17.77Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 41.45Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 57.36Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±16.4

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 35.95Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 20.96Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 62.91Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10621, 545, 1554

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10621, 545, 1554

Auto

23.0 20%

Teleop

60.9 54%

Endgame

29.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 4567, 1880

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 4567, 1880

Auto

20.1 17%

Teleop

81.2 69%

Endgame

16.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score119.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.2
Score range: 96–141
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 119.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.9Season APEX313.2

23Auto20.1

60.9Teleop81.2

29.3Endgame16.5

71Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	34	21
endgame	11	4
foul	5	0
total	74	45

Result

Final score

74 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 58.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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