Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.76 – 141.65

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±19.4

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 30.56Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX -8.43Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX -12.37Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±17.7

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 105.93Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 45.13Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX -9.41Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3137, 2161, 9646

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3137, 2161, 9646

Auto

14.3 70%

Teleop

7.5 37%

Endgame

-1.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 810, 3950, 514

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 810, 3950, 514

Auto

34.0 24%

Teleop

69.4 49%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score9.8pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.9
Score range: -12–164
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX258.4

14.3Auto34

7.5Teleop69.4

-1.4Endgame37.4

96Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	33
teleop	28	8
endgame	21	2
foul	5	0
total	73	43

Result

Final score

73 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 80.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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