Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.06 – 27.86

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.8 ±17

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 28.23Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 6.1Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 30.73Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150 ±22.5

1803Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 5.05Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -2.07Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 24.88Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 358, 28, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 358, 28, 6423

Auto

22.2 29%

Teleop

19.1 25%

Endgame

34.3 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1803, 601, 2027

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1803, 601, 2027

Auto

6.8 100%

Teleop

-4.8 0%

Endgame

1.6 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.1pts

Blue projected score27.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 6–87
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 121.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.8Season APEX150

22.2Auto6.8

19.1Teleop-4.8

34.3Endgame1.6

104Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	21
teleop	70	11
endgame	31	12
foul	20	0
total	146	44

Result

Final score

146 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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