Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.14 – 159.42

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456 ±15.4

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 80.87Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 22.55Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.72Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±17.3

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 37.28Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 48.53Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 73.61Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 870, 5016, 871

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 870, 5016, 871

Auto

20.1 17%

Teleop

58.5 51%

Endgame

36.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 884, 3624, 353

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 884, 3624, 353

Auto

26.1 21%

Teleop

68.8 56%

Endgame

27.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score159.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 106–181
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 119.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456Season APEX305.8

20.1Auto26.1

58.5Teleop68.8

36.4Endgame27

157Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	18
teleop	117	85
endgame	53	62
foul	5	5
total	215	170

Result

Final score

215 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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