Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.21 – 140.46

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±19.3

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -4.95Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

545ROBO-DAWGS

Provisional

Season APEX 38.8Event APEX 38.35Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 8.81Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.3 ±18.1

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 54.63Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 51.84Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 33.99Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7673, 545, 2869

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7673, 545, 2869

Auto

5.4 14%

Teleop

9.9 25%

Endgame

24.0 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2638, 1554, 2347

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2638, 1554, 2347

Auto

43.3 39%

Teleop

71.5 64%

Endgame

-2.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42.2pts

Blue projected score140.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.2
Score range: 21–161
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.4Season APEX375.3

5.4Auto43.3

9.9Teleop71.5

24Endgame-2.4

72Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	46
teleop	11	87
endgame	10	17
foul	0	5
total	35	155

Result

Final score

35 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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