Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.96 – 72.21

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.2 ±16.9

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 57.78Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

564Longwood RoboLions

Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 1.5Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 42.68Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±20.5

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 33.95Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3171HURRICANES

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 2.98Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11030Bonac Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 35.28Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1880, 564, 1546

/ 100 compat

Projected

102 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1880, 564, 1546

Auto

31.5 31%

Teleop

54.7 54%

Endgame

14.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 527, 3171, 11030

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 527, 3171, 11030

Auto

3.6 5%

Teleop

56.3 76%

Endgame

14.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102pts

Blue projected score72.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.8
Score range: 51–123
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 118.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.2Season APEX222.2

31.5Auto3.6

54.7Teleop56.3

14.8Endgame14.6

61Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	9
teleop	60	24
endgame	13	18
foul	25	0
total	138	51

Result

Final score

138 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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