Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.76 – 89.51

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.7 ±15

9016Syosset SuperSonics

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 47.1Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 8.22Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 27.44Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±19.3

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 20.9Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX -13.99Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 82.6Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9016, 6806, 4458

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9016, 6806, 4458

Auto

32.2 41%

Teleop

32.5 42%

Endgame

13.5 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10621, 569, 287

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10621, 569, 287

Auto

30.0 34%

Teleop

41.5 47%

Endgame

16.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.8pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 62–111
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.7Season APEX346.2

32.2Auto30

32.5Teleop41.5

13.5Endgame16.4

69Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	40
teleop	46	46
endgame	28	14
foul	0	20
total	97	120

Result

Final score

97 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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