Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.5 – 133.66

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 88.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±19.4

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 57.14Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4567The Mechanized Mafia

Provisional

Season APEX 44.2Event APEX 34.79Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 63.57Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 496.5 ±12.2

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 12.6Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 49.61Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8267Riptide Robotics 8267

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 71.45Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2872, 4567, 496

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2872, 4567, 496

Auto

20.3 13%

Teleop

96.7 62%

Endgame

39.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 806, 263, 8267

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 806, 263, 8267

Auto

19.4 15%

Teleop

75.4 59%

Endgame

32.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 113–177
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.6Season APEX496.5

20.3Auto19.4

96.7Teleop75.4

39.9Endgame32.7

171Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	25
teleop	93	156
endgame	15	93
foul	5	20
total	138	294

Result

Final score

138 – 294

Prediction missed · off by 88.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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