Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.28 – 118.71

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±16.4

3950RoboGym Robotics

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 45.17Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

870TEAM R. I. C. E.

Season APEX 291.3Event APEX 53.87Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

884Mechanical Mules

Provisional

Season APEX 24.3Event APEX 14.24Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±19.4

28Pierson Whalers

Provisional

Season APEX 53Event APEX 16.84Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2875CyberHawks

Season APEX 87Event APEX 53.32Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3137T-Birds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 48.55Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3950, 870, 884

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3950, 870, 884

Auto

22.0 19%

Teleop

42.3 37%

Endgame

49.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 28, 2875, 3137

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 28, 2875, 3137

Auto

31.8 25%

Teleop

61.5 48%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.3pts

Blue projected score118.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.4
Score range: 92–140
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.5Season APEX193.2

22Auto31.8

42.3Teleop61.5

49Endgame33.9

138Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	25
teleop	135	8
endgame	67	6
foul	5	0
total	233	39

Result

Final score

233 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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