Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
405.42 – 88.64
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
389 – 61
Prediction correct · off by 22 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 103.29Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 271.39Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 30.74Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.9 ±20.5
11030Bonac Bots
Provisional
Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 42.7Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
2027Robotic Dragons
Provisional
Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 24.35Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 64.9Event APEX 21.59Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 287, 5736, 3950
83
/ 100 compatProjected
405.4 pts
~2.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 287, 5736, 3950
Auto
95.9 25%
Teleop
209.4 54%
Endgame
82.1 21%
Strengths
- · 5736 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11030, 2027, 564
52
/ 100 compatProjected
88.6 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 11030, 2027, 564
Auto
16.8 21%
Teleop
43.5 55%
Endgame
19.4 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.45
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score405.4pts
Blue projected score88.6pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 316.8
- Score range
- 64–430
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
622.7Season APEX202.9
95.9Auto16.8
209.4Teleop43.5
82.1Endgame19.4
0Consistency93
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 81 | 8 |
| teleop | 204 | 36 |
| endgame | 79 | 17 |
| foul | 25 | 0 |
| total | 389 | 61 |
Result
Final score
389 – 61
Prediction correct · off by 22 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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