Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.46 – 123.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 89 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.3 ±20.5

2027Robotic Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 4.71Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2347Trial and Error

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 20.28Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3624Soaring Colts

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 21.47Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.4 ±17.1

1554Oceanside Kraken

Season APEX 88.5Event APEX 58.81Rank 9Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 76

329Mohawks

Season APEX 32.2Event APEX 6.63Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

353POBots

Season APEX 169.7Event APEX 58.15Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2027, 2347, 3624

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2027, 2347, 3624

Auto

23.6 50%

Teleop

30.5 64%

Endgame

-6.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1554, 329, 353

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1554, 329, 353

Auto

21.1 19%

Teleop

73.7 65%

Endgame

18.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.5pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.1
Score range: 26–144
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.3Season APEX290.4

23.6Auto21.1

30.5Teleop73.7

-6.7Endgame18

42Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	7	127
endgame	9	18
foul	135	10
total	168	180

Result

Final score

168 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 89 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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