Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.53 – 27.69

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.1 ±22

2161Robocats

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 10.16Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1546Chaos, Inc.

Provisional

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 54.19Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

527Red Dragons

Provisional

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 39.18Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±17.5

871Robotechs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 9.62Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7673Formosan Sika

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX -8.47Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1468Hicksville J-Birds

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 26.54Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2161, 1546, 527

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2161, 1546, 527

Auto

20.1 20%

Teleop

58.6 58%

Endgame

21.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 871, 7673, 1468

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 871, 7673, 1468

Auto

12.8 82%

Teleop

2.8 18%

Endgame

0.1 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score27.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.8
Score range: 7–125
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.1Season APEX205

20.1Auto12.8

58.6Teleop2.8

21.5Endgame0.1

70Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	23	25
endgame	6	21
foul	0	35
total	50	96

Result

Final score

50 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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