Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.87 – 140.15

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.1 ±20

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 6.14Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10621Crusaders

Provisional

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 25.82Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2487Mechanical Animals

Provisional

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 17.91Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.1 ±16.4

358Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 48.98Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

287Floyd Robotics

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 86.88Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1803Vikings

Provisional

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 4.29Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9646, 10621, 2487

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9646, 10621, 2487

Auto

15.2 29%

Teleop

21.1 41%

Endgame

15.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 358, 287, 1803

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 358, 287, 1803

Auto

23.0 17%

Teleop

86.4 65%

Endgame

23.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.9pts

Blue projected score140.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.3
Score range: 29–161
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.1Season APEX434.1

15.2Auto23

21.1Teleop86.4

15.6Endgame23.7

163Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	48
teleop	28	41
endgame	13	12
foul	5	0
total	57	101

Result

Final score

57 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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