Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.59 – 0

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

278 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.7 ±15.5

514Entropy

Provisional

Season APEX 29.6Event APEX 8.55Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 45.14Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5736Kingsmen Robotics

Season APEX 282.2Event APEX 202.9Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.4 ±15

6806Mineola Wild Reds

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX -9.59Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

806The Brooklyn Blacksmiths

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX -23.33Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6423Ward Melville Iron Patriots

Season APEX 83Event APEX 27.99Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 514, 1880, 5736

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 514, 1880, 5736

Auto

76.2 32%

Teleop

132.0 55%

Endgame

33.5 14%

Strengths

· 5736 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6806, 806, 6423

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6806, 806, 6423

Auto

5.4 0%

Teleop

-9.6 100%

Endgame

2.8 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score256.6pts

Blue projected score-4.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 256.6
Score range: -20–277
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 113.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.7Season APEX250.4

76.2Auto5.4

132Teleop-9.6

33.5Endgame2.8

111Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	17
teleop	134	76
endgame	52	41
foul	0	5
total	278	139

Result

Final score

278 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 80.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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