Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

183.28 – 104.87

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±17.7

569Rambots 569

Provisional

Season APEX 52Event APEX -0.92Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

810The Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 130.9Event APEX 126.8Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2872CyberCats

Season APEX 180.6Event APEX 57.4Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.5 ±16.9

5016Huntington Robotics

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 13.15Rank 46Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11030Bonac Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 33.29Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 58.43Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 569, 810, 2872

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 569, 810, 2872

Auto

39.3 23%

Teleop

94.4 54%

Endgame

40.8 23%

Strengths

· 810 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5016, 11030, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5016, 11030, 2638

Auto

33.2 35%

Teleop

46.3 48%

Endgame

16.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score183.3pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.4
Score range: 85–203
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 112.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.5Season APEX418.5

39.3Auto33.2

94.4Teleop46.3

40.8Endgame16.1

45Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	23
teleop	88	93
endgame	36	14
foul	0	5
total	162	135

Result

Final score

162 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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