Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.39 – 94.37

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±19.8

4458Infernobotix

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 21.93Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

496Royals

Provisional

Season APEX 72.8Event APEX 59.36Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

601BayBots

Provisional

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 5.1Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±14.5

533The PSIcotics

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 23.1Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2869Regal Eagles

Season APEX 89Event APEX 18.39Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

263Aftershock

Season APEX 175.6Event APEX 52.88Rank 12Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4458, 496, 601

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4458, 496, 601

Auto

22.3 27%

Teleop

42.7 52%

Endgame

16.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 533, 2869, 263

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 533, 2869, 263

Auto

20.1 21%

Teleop

49.0 51%

Endgame

27.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score86.4pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8
Score range: 66–114
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.7Season APEX341.7

22.3Auto20.1

42.7Teleop49

16.5Endgame27.7

93Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	46	55
endgame	46	1
foul	0	0
total	108	76

Result

Final score

108 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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